Canadian canola endured a tumultuous 2025 marked by extreme volatility, with nearby futures trading in a wide range from approximately $550 to $750 per tonne before settling near $633 by mid-Decemberâclose to where the year began. The market turbulence stems primarily from escalating trade tensions with China, Canada's largest foreign canola buyer, which imposed 100% tariffs on Canadian canola oil and meal in March following Canada's 100% duty on Chinese electric vehicles.
The situation intensified in August when China added a 75.8% surcharge on Canadian canola seed imports, effectively shutting the door on exports to the People's Republic. Compounding market uncertainty, the U.S. Biden administration's new biofuel policy initially excluded Canadian canola feedstock before the Trump administration eventually permitted imports for biofuel production. Meanwhile, Statistics Canada significantly revised its production estimatesâinitially pegged at 17.85 million tonnes in December 2024, the figure was adjusted multiple times before settling at 19.24 million tonnes. The industry now faces the challenge of marketing a record 2024/25 harvest of 21.80 million tonnes with China still absent from export markets.